College Football Playoff bowl projections: The final battle for No. 1 between Ohio State and LSU - cleveland.com

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. -- Nobody get mad, because nobody knows anything.

The College Football Playoff teams will be announced shortly after noon on Sunday, and while everyone can be certain of the four playoff teams, no one can be certain of which team will be No. 1. Ohio State was No. 1 the last two weeks, but that certainly could change in the only rankings that matter. The Buckeyes beat No. 8 Wisconsin 34-21 on Saturday, and they didn’t lead until three minutes were left in the third quarter. No. 2 LSU beat No. 4 Georgia 37-10 and led the entire game, and led by at least 10 points for the final three quarters.

This is a 13-member committee deciding things. Imagine that the vote last week had something like eight committee members thinking Ohio State should be No. 1, and five members thinking it should be LSU. If just two of those 13 people change their minds, the vote could switch to 7-6 in favor of LSU. And “the committee” will have changed when actually just 2 of 13 voters were swayed.

That’s what we’re talking about here. That’s why we can’t know. I’m not going to outline the arguments here, because you’ll get them all again Sunday. But I’ll tell you what I think. And I’ll tell you I know this -- it’s tight and it could go either way.

Bowl Projections, 1.0

Bowl Projections, 2.0

Bowl Projections, 3.0

Bowl Projections, 4.0

Bowl Projections, 5.0

Dec. 28, Peach Bowl, Atlanta, College Football Playoff semifinal

No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

I’m flipping it. I think the Tigers will persuade two or three committee members to lean their way and will grab the top spot. An informal poll of Ohio State writers left in the press box several hours after the Big Ten Championship Saturday night had 10 votes for No. 1 and eight votes for No. 2 when predicting what they think will happen.

I think I’d still vote Ohio State on top. But I don’t think the committee will. And talking to some people around the program after the game, the Buckeyes are prepared for the idea of falling to No. 2.

Dec. 28, Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz., College Football Playoff semifinal

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson

That sends the Buckeyes and Clemson back to the Fiesta Bowl for a playoff rematch from 2016, when No. 2 Clemson beat No. 3 Ohio State 31-0. Be sure of this -- the No. 1 seed is picking to play in Atlanta. So the Fiesta will get 2-3 whatever the teams are.

Dec. 28, Cotton Bowl, Arlington, Texas

Memphis vs. Penn State

Memphis should take the spot reserved for the top non-power conference school after beating Cincinnati for the American Athletic Conference Championship. The competition is Mountain West champ Boise State. Both teams finished 12-1 and Memphis was No. 17 last week while Boise was No. 19. So it should be Memphis. Some people think Penn State will head to the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin will land here. But I’m fairly certain it goes this way. The only other candidate is former No. 5 Utah, which might have made the playoff by winning the Pac-12 Championship Game but now will likely drop out of the top-tier bowls after a 22-point loss.

Dec. 30, Orange Bowl, Miami, Florida

Virginia vs. Florida

Boring. The ACC has to send its second-best team here because Clemson is in the playoff. But there is no second-best ACC team. So it’s 9-4 Virginia after losing to Clemson by 45 in the ACC Championship.

Jan. 1, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Wisconsin was No. 8, two spots ahead of No. 10 Penn State, going into Saturday night. I don’t think the committee will penalize the Badgers much for losing by making the Big Ten Championship and playing the Buckeyes tough enough to lead by 14 at the half. So imagine that the 10-3 Badgers stay ahead of the 10-2 Nittany Lions and take this Rose spot against the Pac-12 champ.

Jan. 1, Sugar Bowl, New Orleans

Baylor vs. Georgia

It’s the Big 12 title game loser vs. the SEC title game loser.

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2019-12-08 10:00:00Z
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