How Tokyo 2020 Postponement Could Affect Olympic Soccer - Forbes

Brazil v Germany: Men's Football - Olympics: Neymar — RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - AUGUST 20: Neymar of Brazil bites his medal after the Olympic Men's Final ... [+] Football match between Brazil and Germany at Maracana Stadium on August 20, 2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Stuart Franklin - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
FIFA via Getty Images

The postponement of Tokyo 2020 will affect each sport differently, and in many cases, it is a bit more complicated than simply competing one year later. The change in dates affects both the women’s and men’s Olympic soccer tournaments, albeit in different ways.

In some countries like the UK, the men’s Olympic soccer tournament often plays second fiddle to the World Cup and continental tournaments like the European Championships. But in others it is more valued, with Neymar taking part in the 2016 Olympics to help Brazil win gold on home soil, and Argentina’s Lionel Messi saying “The Olympic gold in 2008 is the win that I value the most.”

One of the main reasons for its lesser reputation in some countries is that to try and keep some semblance of the amateur spirit of the Olympics, the mens’ soccer teams are made up of under-23 players, apart from three overage players.

This rule has caused some worry for the players who have qualified for the Olympics, as it implies that some of them would be unable to compete. Australia’s national team coach Graham Arnold told the Sydney Morning Herald “you need to make sure the age group for the boys is shifted to 24 so those boys who helped qualify their nations have the chance to still go.”

That would give those players the chance to fulfill their dreams, but for South Korea’s players, it could shape the rest of their careers. Should South Korea win an Olympic medal, like they did at London 2012, they would be given an exemption from standard military service, which they would otherwise be forced to do just as their careers are reaching their peak.

Luckily for the players who helped their countries qualify for the Olympics, the official FIFA rules are on their side. The rules state that “All players participating in the preliminary and final competitions of the Tournament shall be born on or after 1 January 1997” apart from the three overage players.

Article 13.4: All players participating in the preliminary and final competitions of the Tournament shall be born on or after 1 January 1997. However, a maximum of three male players who do not meet this age limit may also be included in the official list of players for the final competition. 13.4

Regulations for the Olympic Football Tournaments Games of the XXXIII Olympiad Tokyo 2020

These rules can be changed based on force majeure. But as most of the preliminary matches have already taken place, such a change would go against the principle of making sure that athletes who have already qualified get to compete in the Games.

The other issues are to with the dates of the 2021 event. The heat of the Japanese summer means that if it were possibly, hosting the games in the spring or autumn might be preferable to holding them in late July. The 1964 Tokyo Olympics, for instance, took place in October.

Such a move would have a huge impact on soccer at the Olympics as all the players would have club commitments at that time. However, given the demands of broadcasters and the timetables of soccer and major U.S. sports, the only realistic option is that the Olympics will be delayed by more or less exactly a year.

For the men’s games, should the current crop of players be allowed to compete, then as they are all a year older, more of them are likely to have graduated from the under-23s to their full national teams. With EURO 2020 and Copa America 2020 both being postponed themselves, and most likely finishing less than two weeks before the start of the Olympics, Brazil, Argentina, and the European nations at the Olympics (France, Germany, Spain and Romania) could be comparatively weaker, increasing the chances of a podium place for African and Asian nations.

For the women’s games, the schedule is more problematic as it clashes with the women’s European Championships, scheduled to take place from July 7th to August 1st, 2021.

UEFA had been hoping that this tournament could capitalize on the success of last year’s women’s World Cup, but have now found the tournament overlapping both the men’s European Championships and the Olympics. As the same players will compete for European teams in both EURO 2021 and the Olympics, these two competitions clashing is not an option.

In order to avoid a clash with the men’s EURO 2020, the women’s tournament could have been moved back a few weeks, but if the Olympics begins in late July then this wouldn’t be possible.

One alternative is moving it forward to avoid clashing with the Olympics, but this would still mean it would have to go head to head with the rescheduled EURO 2020. The glass-half-full types could see that as a possible summer of soccer for the British Isles, with EURO 2021 being played across England and a large number of the EURO 2020 matches originally meant to be played in London, Glasgow and Dublin. The glass-half-empty types will worry that the coverage of EURO 2021 could get lost in the mix of all the other events taking place at the same time.

Another option would be to push it back to the summer of 2022, which doesn’t have a soccer World Cup as Qatar 2022 takes place in the winter. Head of UEFA Aleksander Ceferin has said that this is the “most likely” option due to worries that the tournament could be cannibalized by the men’s game if it takes place in 2021.

Such a move to 2022 would mean that the scheduling repercussions of this summer’s cancelled tournaments could last for at least two years.